MON - JAN 8

•Markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.

•Earnings: Mega Financial Holdings, First Financial Holdings and LG Electronics.

TUE JAN 9

•China will report M2 Money Supply, new loans and aggregate financing numbers.

•Earnings: Samsung Electronics, LG Energy Solution and CTBC Financial Holding.

WED JAN 10

•Australia is expected to report CPI and job vacancy numbers.

•Earnings: Fubon FHC, the Formosa Group and Yasakawa Electric.

•The US SEC will be voting on Bitcoin ETF applications

THU JAN 11

•The Bank of Korea is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.50%.

•Earnings: Fast Retailing in Japan, Infosys in India, and Largan in Taiwan.

•US core CPI is expected to drop to 3.80% while headline CPI is expected to rebound back from 3.10% to 3.20%

•US Initial Jobless Claims and Average Hourly Earnings data will be published.

FRI JAN 12

•China will report CPI and PPI data along with exports figures.

•Earnings: JP Morgan, Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Blackrock and Citi will be kicking off the US

reporting season.

(source:Bloomberg)

• After nine consecutive weekly rallies, the market became technically overbought, indicating a need for consolidation. While the start of year seasonal pattern is typically strong, a market retracement and a potentialdip in January would not be surprising.
• US mega cap tech stocks are currently a consensus long position, but this is not necessarily a problem at the moment . These stocks have been attracting capital for a long time, given their strong balance sheets and high valuation. However, considering their widespread ownership and expensive prices, investors should be selective when adding positions, we would look to add on meaningful market corrections.
• In 2024, we anticipate a shift from "AI adoption" to "AI improvement," allowing for a broader range of stocks to participate in the AI investment theme. It won't be limited to companies producing AI chips but also those successfully incorporating AI to enhance productivity.
• The market in 2024 will be supported by a friendly Federal Reserve but constrained by demanding positioning and high valuation. We can expect the market to move within a range, with sector rotations.
• The US consumer appears to be in good shape, thanks to favorable dynamics in the labor market.Consumer spending remains healthy, with wage inflation outpacing other inflation measures,leading to an increase in household real disposable income. We forecast that consumer spending will surpass expectations, with projected growth of 2% compared to a consensus of 1%, driven by expected growth of around 3% in real income and near all time high household net worth.

• Japanese equities have the potential to continue rallying. We maintain a bullish outlook on Japan due to ongoing improvements in shareholder treatment and returns, the inflow of foreign capital to Japanese equities, and a shift away from three decades of deflationary pressures. These factors generally favor the bulls. adults worldwide will vote for their respective leaders this year, which could increase headline risks. The global government fiscal crisis persists as policymakers continue to implement loose fiscal policies that need to be financed through the bond market. The US government , in particular, will

  need to issue $2.4 trillion in bonds, and the federal debt stands at around $34 trillion. As the US Presidential Election approaches, it remains to be seen whether the market will revisit concerns about debt sustainability.

• Numerous geopolitical events pose ongoing concerns as global risks. Additionally, roughly 50% of adults worldwide will vote for their respective leaders this year, which could increase headline risks. The global government fiscal crisis persists as policymakers continue to implement loose fiscal policies that need to be financed through the bond market. The US government , in particular, will need to issue $2.4 trillion in bonds, and the federal debt stands at around $34 trillion. As the US Presidential Election approaches, it remains to be seen whether the market will revisit concerns about debt sustainability.

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