MON 4 MAR

•The second session of China’s CPPCC will begin, a day before the start of China’s National People’s Congress.

•Earnings: Celltrion, China Tower.

TUE 5 MAR

•China’s National People’s Congress will begin.

•The Caixin PMI survey will be released in China.

•In Japan Tokyo inflation data will be out. BoJ Governor Ueda will be speaking.

•Earnings: Target.

•US election: Super Tuesday primaries will be held in North Carolina, California and Texas & other states.

WED 6 MAR

•Earnings: JD.

•In the US, mortgage applications, ADP employment (150K) and job openings data will be out.

•Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Committee.

THU 7 MAR

•FX reserve # will be reported by China. Malaysia’s Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold.

•Earnings: MTR, Techtronic, Wharf REIT.

•The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold. ECB President Lagarde will speak after the meeting.

•Fed Chair Powell be appearing before the Senate Banking Committee.

•Biden will be delivering his State of the Union address, his final one before the US election in Nov.

•The open on Friday will be marked by the expiry of the key March Nikkei options.

•Markets in India will be closed for a holiday.

•In the US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a continued increase (200K) with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged (3.7%).

•Earnings: Oracle, Costco and ZTE.

• Tech: $4.7bn inflow = largest since Aug 2023…tech inflow annualizing record $98.8bn in 2024.
• To start the year, we prefer to keep exposure to TECH, as economic activity is likely to slow down in the first few months of 2024.

• Technology achieved a major leadership breakout on the move above its 2021 and 2000 peaks versus the SPX in May 2023.
• Allocation to TECH is now the highest since Aug 2020.

TECH EARNINGS

Now that Nvidia's results are in, here's what we know:

• in Q4 of last year, the Magnificent 7 stocks increased sales by 15% year over year and boosted margins by 6% year over year, resulting in earnings growth of 60%.
• In contrast, the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 increased sales by only 3% year over year, while margins contracted by 0.59%, causing earnings to fall by 2%.
• Essentially, the earnings growth of the major tech stocks was +60%, compared to -2% for the rest of the US stocks.
• Although there are other attractive areas of the market, such as healthcare, industrials, and parts of consumer discretionary, these big tech stocks continue to outperform other US stocks.

(source:Bloomberg)

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